MAU Vegas 2023 to 2025 Myths and Predictions Reality Check

MAU Vegas is where bold predictions get made on stage, everyone nods, and then the industry moves on. Three editions later, I went back through the coverage to see which ones held up.

Here's what I found:

PREDICTIONS THAT CAME TRUE

"AI will move from hype to real-world use cases" (MAU Vegas 2023)

By MAU 2024, case studies with actual numbers were everywhere. By 2025, AI-assisted campaigns were standard practice, not experiments. One of the cleaner calls of the past three years.

"Retention will overtake acquisition as the primary focus" (MAU Vegas 2024)

Confirmed. Sensor Tower's State of Mobile Gaming 2025 shows IAP revenue up 4% YoY even as total downloads fell 7%. Studios that bet on retention won.

"CTV will become a meaningful UA channel" (MAU Vegas 2023)

Also held up. CTV has moved from test budget to regular UA planning conversation by 2025.

THE MYTH THAT DIDN'T HOLD

"Google's Privacy Sandbox will deprecate GAID" (Discussed at MAU Vegas 2023, expected to land in 2024)

This was treated as industry-inevitable for two straight years. In early 2025, Google scrapped the initiative entirely. The ecosystem spent considerable time and budget preparing for a change that never came.

The prediction that has aged best though comes from Cameron Stewart at SciPlay, who said in late 2024 that LiveOps would stop being a "support function" and become a central pillar of game strategy. Looking at how studios are structured now, that's exactly where things landed.

What predictions from MAU Vegas do you remember that aged particularly well, or badly?

Also, are you planning to attend MAU Vegas 2026? If yes, what are you most looking forward to? Drop it in the comments. Would love to connect with folks from the industry there.

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#mauvegas #mobilegaming #liveops #gameindustry #mobileua #gamemarketing #mobilegamingtrends #gamedev #mobileapps #useracquisition

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